Ah spring, is there anything more refreshing than spring in the air? Allergies, buds pushing up from the ground, leaves getting ready to burst forth, the migration of ducks… Or should I say DUCs? You remember those, Drilled but UnCompleted? Those thousands of drilled wells in the US that were ready to flood the market, what happened to those anyway?
As many of you may have noticed, I’ve closed a lot of my blogs since the election with the line “where’s my damn pipeline” and guess what, as of this week, we are a whole bunch of steps closer to having our damn pipeline. Or as some commentators have said, in 4 days Donald Trump has done more for Canada’s oilpatch than Trudeau or Notley has done in 2 years.
Well, there you go. It’s done. I have to say, the inauguration has always struck me as one of the more uneventful events in the political theatre, everyone is on their best behaviour, it’s civilized and quite often it’s cold and rainy so it seems like everyone just wants to get on with it and go to a party.
Well that was sure a nice break, anyone miss me? But now it’s time to get back to the grindstone and get everything ready for the gong show that 2017 is already shaping up to be what with the coronation, oops “inauguration” of President Donald Trump (still can’t say that without giggling), a brand new carbon tax in Alberta and Vladimir Putin as master puppeteer for the globe!
I’ve always found at Christmas time, that I tend to be really unfocused and end up overlooking some critical things, like work, stocking stuffers for my wife – you know, minor stuff! Case in point, last week was (in my mind at least) my end of year post except I forgot to actually say it was, and today being Friday, I find myself in a bit of a bind.
So just the other day, I happened to be walking by one of those postal pick-up thingys – whatever they are called, you know, where Canada Post dumps and sorts your mail and you have to throw on your bathrobe and slippers in the dead of night and drive out to and pick up the mail? The ones they suddenly want to get rid of and go back to home delivery along with, apparently, buying myspace and AOL?
So here I sit, housebound by the excruciating cold snap we are going through as well as by (currently shirked) parental responsibilities towards a sick kid. At any rate, other things I should be working on than this blog right? So I will keep it short, like my trips outside. -25? Seriously?
I hope everyone is super-pumped by that awesome week of energy industry feel-goodness. What with OPEC and pipelines, you can almost be forgiven for not noticing our spiffy new website and masthead for the blog! We are pretty excited about it.
So here we sit a week or so removed from the US election and you know what? I feel kind of liberated. Not a voting-result based monkey off my back, just relief that I don’t have to spend as much time getting distracted by another country’s crazy politics, at least until January, when the transition happens, or if I suddenly develop an interest in Italian politics (ay, caramba!). Besides, as a private equity buddy reminded me the other day, the blog was maybe getting a little too political in nature, so herewith, back to business! […]
So now that that whole Drumpf election is behind us, I guess it is time to pick up the pieces of our shattered psyches, pick our collective jaws out of the dirt and figure out exactly what is going on, what may happen, what will happen and how much we should be worried about. As it regards social commentary and the fitness or unfitness of a candidate for a position, their moral compass and whether their supporters are cut from the same cloth or not, much ink has been spilled by far smarter and […]
Well, what a night! It was fascinating watching the results trickle in and seeing Wolf Blitzer get way too excited about a 10 vote swing in Fiddle-Faddle County North Carolina and CNN with their magic wall and talking heads and pundits and smug Canadians like me and people around the world telling everyone in the United States how to vote. And that is exactly what they did. In big numbers. In surprising numbers. In surprising ways. Some people got the result they wanted. Some people got the result they never wanted. But you […]
**Caution – Provocative and long-winded opinion to follow. May contain nuts** So, this is what we have been building up to for what seems like the past 2884 months. (Months since July 4 1776). I am of course referring to the NDP carbon tax economic impact analysis. No wait, the ATB economic update for the province of Alberta. No, the federal government and its fall economic update. Seriously folks, it’s the joint PSAC/CAPP drilling forecast for 2017. Bank of Canada rate decision? FOMC meeting? Cubs win? Okay, okay, okay. We are talking […]
Ah Halloween, that favourite time of year where kids run around in costume yelling at their neighbours, demanding candy, counting their loot, hoarding their bounty and ultimately falling twitching into bed in a massive overly stimulated sugar high as their teeth disintegrate in their sleep. It’s also the vastly amusing time of year when it is not unusual to pull up at a stop light and have Batman sitting in the car next to you doing something completely mundane like texting or eating a cheeseburger. By the way, I have my costume picked, […]
So, phew, that was a bit of an experience right? (IT WAS WONDERFUL) Is anyone out there like me after last Wednesday’s debate thanking their lucky stars that this is all finally, mercifully over? (I DON”T ACCEPT THAT RESULT, IT’S NOT OVER TILL I SAY IT IS) What? It’s not? There’s more? Surely not that much more left. What? 17 days? That’s a freaking eternity! (LOSER) Look, I actually know how many days there are until November 28th, I mean 8th. (IT’S JUST NUMBERS) I am just at a loss as to what […]
Well look at that, another three months gone by and it is time to do a Q3 report card on my bold predictions. I would note that so far, there is no Trumpian risk factor showing up, but I expect that volatility may increase as we approach November 8th and by that I mean volatility of the market variety as well as the political. At any rate, still happy with my forecast as far as it stands. Not like I was really out there on some of it – I am always in favour […]
Ah, Canadian thanksgiving, turkey, mashed potatoes etc. Falling leaves and sunny afternoons watching football… A wonderful time of year and a great opportunity to take stock and give thanks for all the things that matter in the year that is past and the year that is to come. So, in no particular order, here are some of the things that I am thankful for. Not being in Calgary today. Seriously, a short vacation to the sun. And what happens? It freaking snows in Calgary! Turn on those furnaces everyone! Green […]
So, after weeks and months of wandering in the wilderness, the energy sector, nay the world, was finally blessed with some seeming good news this week, at least enough to temporarily lift spirits that were otherwise sitting despondently nursing a warm gin and tonic. That is, before reality and the overwhelming negativity of the analyst community and the market at large crushed this nascent hope like a bug. What are these good news/bad news stories? Someone Blinked As postulated in this space last week, OPEC did indeed surprise the market with an announcement […]
Look, I have to write about it, it’s become a big deal and it is the most compelling/interesting thing going on in the energy sector this week. That’s right, I’m talking about an apparent Canadian invasion of New York City, with Rachel Notley attending “Climate Week” and Justin Trudeau addressing the 71st General Assembly of the United Nations. I mean seriously, has there ever been a time when a confluence of events has brought Canada’s leaders so close to the power and influence we so desperately crave? In one fell swoop, we are once […]
As we enter year 3 of this big giant mess of an energy industry, I feel myself compelled to put on my Saudi Arabia hat and ask myself – has it all been worth it? Sometimes a little introspection is important especially because I believe that Saudi Arabia needs to own up the abject failure of its strategy, not that I have any strong feelings about this or anything. I don’t say that lightly and I know that many will dispute this given the state on the energy industry. However, if you take a step […]
It’s amazing isn’t it? Last week I predicted a rebound in M&A and then whammo, here we go. I gotta get me some lottery tickets. I suppose the big news this week is the announced Enbridge-Spectra mega merger, which will create the largest North American pipeline and energy infrastructure company, the fourth largest company in Canada (enterprise value of $165 billion) and an energy transportation colossus based right here in little old Calgary. This is an exciting deal on many levels: it is a sign that M&A is back in a big way, it […]
Nope, not a pro-union polemic or an ode to summer in Canada. Instead, more of an observational piece designed to make everyone feel a bit better heading into the last weekend of summer. Earlier this week, Tervita announced that it had sold its service rig business to High Arctic, a deal which followed on Strad Energy Service’s acquisition of Red Neck Rentals a couple of weeks ago There has been ink spilled already on these deals, discussing whether so and so got fair value, or who won the deal or whatever. I`m not going […]