Crude Observations

Short Verses

So here we are. Week 3 of me trying to be brief and let’s be truthful with each other. It’s not actually going that well. It’s hard. I know it, you know it, my family knows it. I can’t help it. I’m naturally long-winded. After all, why do something in 2 words when you can more easily do it in 167?


That said, in the interests of discipline and efficiency, perhaps I should make out like some of the energy companies reporting on their record profits and brag about my efficiency and mendacity. Seriously, has anyone seen these Q2 results? More on that in the next few weeks. In the meantime I must concentrate on my ability to synthesize the most incredibly complex thoughts into simple words, a modicum of syllabic minimalism. Yes, I think there is a case to be made for brevity. 5 syllables followed by seven, followed by 5.


All life and business should be reduced to such telling and symbolic representations.


For this reason, before I get back to the office next week and mainly because I am typing this blog on my phone whilst driving my family back to Calgary, I present to you the ultimate economy of words and wisdom. The Haiku.


Call it a midsummer smorgasbord of thoughts, presented in that most succinct and difficult of poetic styles. I know you all really wanted limericks, but how many rhymes for Trump can you think of that won’t prevent me from getting across the border?




Oil barons unite

The consumer waits the news

The volume will grow


The Permian Glee


Frenzied drilling goes

The spending knows no bounds

Yet the fed is raising


Service Efficiency


The people need jobs

Efficiency is the new normal

But costs are rising


TransMountain –  Expanded


A pipeline to nowhere?

A bailout the only conduit

Shovels in the ground


It’s a gas, It’s a liquid


Gas price is near zero

A project comes a long last

Taxes must come down


Keystone XL


A trumpian approval

The route is still not clear

Decisions must be made


New Federal Rules


The new rules are gendered

Consultation to take forever

Industry broadly mourns




The market is poised

A champion must soon emerge

Greatness doth await


Whither prices


The range seems set

But the unknown scares all

Volatility sets in


To fill a car


Zero is lonely place

There is no floor for vapor

How low can it go




A bigly problem exists

Policy yes, personality no

A covfefe ensues




A Costumed princeling

Risks to prosperity are high

Time to raise taxes




Hard not to like her

Her party, not so much

The timing works against




Uniter of the right

The seminal issue proves elusive

Find less social issues




Spending is tighter

Profits are rising too fast

Time to buy back stock


Carbon Tax


Building block of life

Requires a tax to cool off

Reduce consumption


To Russia with love


A once great nation

Not liking its lower place

Colluder’s anonymous


The environmentalist


Where once there was green

Now there is nothing but green

Money is the new eco




A time to reflect

The summer sun warms up

Recharge a battery




Industry in pain

Despite winds at its back

Will no one step up?


OK, I’m back in Canada so here’s my limerick…


There once was a man named Trump

Whose brain was akin a stump

He yugely colluded

While Stormy denuded

And spanked him hard on the rump.


Prices as at August 3rd, 2018 (July 27, 2018)

  • The price of oil was flat during the week on trade worries and storage
    • Storage posted a decrease
    • Production was flat
    • The rig count in the US was down
  • After a larger than expected injection, natural gas gave up some ground then rallied thru the end of the week…
  • WTI Crude: $68.49 ($68.69)
  • Nymex Gas: $2.853 ($2.822)
  • US/Canadian Dollar: $0.76590 ($ 0.77100)


  • As at July 27, 2018, US crude oil supplies were at 408.7 million barrels, a decrease of 3.8 million barrels from the previous week and 73.2 million barrels below last year.
    • The number of days oil supply in storage was 23.5 behind last year’s 27.9.
    • Production decreased for the week at 10.900 million barrels per day. Production last year at the same time was 9.430 million barrels per day. The decreased production this week came from decreased production in Alaska and constant production in the Lower 48.
    • Imports fell from 7.770 million barrels a day to 7.749 compared to 8.253 million barrels per day last year.
    • Exports from the US fell to 1.310 million barrels a day from 2.683 last week and 0.702 a year ago
    • Canadian exports to the US were 3.351 million barrels a day, up from 3.245.
    • Refinery inputs were up during the week at 17.480 million barrels a day
  • As at July 27, 2018, US natural gas in storage was 2.308 billion cubic feet (Bcf), which is 20% lower than the 5-year average and about 23% less than last year’s level, following an implied net injection of 35 Bcf during the report week
    • Overall U.S. natural gas consumption was down 1% during the report week
    • Production for the week was up 0.1%. Imports from Canada were down 3% compared to the week before. Exports to Mexico were up 2% from the week before.
    • LNG exports totalled 24.5 Bcf.
  • As of August 3rd the Canadian rig count was 223. Rig count for the same period last year was actually lower.
  • US Onshore Oil rig count at August 3, 2018 was at 859, down 2 from the week prior.
    • Peak rig count was October 10, 2014 at 1,609
  • Natural gas rigs drilling in the United States was down 3 at 183.
    • Peak rig count before the downturn was November 11, 2014 at 356 (note the actual peak gas rig count was 1,606 on August 29, 2008)
  • Offshore rig count was up 1 at 17.
    • Offshore rig count at January 1, 2015 was 55
  • US split of Oil vs Gas rigs is 80%/20%, in Canada the split is 62%/38%


  • A veritable earnings bonanza – who knew lousy Canadian companies could make so much money? Maybe now they could start hiring…
  • Trumpwatch: I was on vacation so I was kind of hoping he would be too. Did anything important happen?
Crude Observations
Sign up for the Stormont take on the latest industry news »

Recent Posts